Everyone knows that 99% of bookmakers cut the accounts of successful players (especially large ones) and “arbers”. For what?

The fact is that the average bookmaker makes money from the losses of its clients. Therefore, they get rid of winning players and arbers who exploit errors in the line as quickly as possible. Nobody wants to pay, and paying a lot is generally unacceptable. Amateur bookmakers should be avoided by players who want to take bets seriously.

Only professional companies and betting exchanges do not limit bet maximums.

Pinnacle is the number 1 bookmaker for the professional. Why doesn’t Pinnacle cut bets, but instead increases the limits?

A professional bookmaker makes money not from the losses of clients, but from the turnover of funds! Pinnacle is interested in maximizing the volume of bets; the more bets, the better. From the turnover, the Pinnacle bookmaker takes its percentage of 1.5-2.5% (margin).

Let’s say that several or professionals bet impressive amounts on one outcome P1 (the line load occurs), then the bookmaker’s protection is triggered, and the odds on P2 increase, and on P1, on the contrary, they decrease, thereby attracting players to bet on this result. In this way, the bookmaker balances the line and will be in profit in any situation.

An example of bookmakers reducing odds (line loading)

Why can't other bookmakers work like this?

The Pinnacle line is not the longest, but it is regulated by its traders in a timely manner and there are practically no errors in it.

The limits at Pinnacle, unlike other bookmakers, are the same regardless of the odds (you can bet 10,000 USD on both P2 with odds of 1.25 and P1 with odds of 8).

For example, there is a strong load on the line towards TB2.5. The company promptly adjusts the coefficients, significantly reducing them at TB2.5 and increasing them at TM2.5. As a result, an overestimated odds or an arbitrage situation with other bookmakers arises. “Valuists” and “arbers” will not miss the benefits and will begin to bet huge amounts on TM2.5, thereby leveling the Pinnacle line. That is why the company is so fond of clients who make inflated odds (when the odds are higher than the mathematical expectation). It is convenient to monitor line movement graphs in a special Pinnacle Lite.

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Pinnacle strategy. My many years of unsuccessful attempts at writing.

For many years now I have been thinking about finding an approach to the pinnacle line. Instead of spending hours searching for the necessary information in order to place only 5-6 bets on a pinnacle, I would like to develop a betting strategy based on a technical analysis of the line and place bets using a scanner, as is the case with a marathon. Agree, it would be nice to bet without headaches in a pinnacle where bills are not cut and there are no other surprises as is the case with Mr. offices. There you can make money, if not through turnover, then through high limits.

I am sure that there are players who managed to identify a pattern in the movement of the line and successfully apply their strategy in pinnacle. But most likely there are only a few of them. Since, it seems to me, no one intends to announce the strategy for free just like that, I propose to think together and look for this buried dog: dp:

To begin with, I will share my experiments that I have spent many years perverting the pinnacle line and the archive of bets.

I took all the data from the archive. To identify patterns, I used services such as scanbet, odsportal, and also the surebets scanner, which is described on the main page.

1. I took the first line move in the pinnacle since its opening. Naturally, I bet on the reduction factor. A sample of 1000 bets showed that nothing interesting happened in the end. Approximately at the break-even point. Despite the fact that the dispersion clearly went beyond the required mathematical expectation.
2. Having read the advice of American experts, I played exclusively according to their recommendations: if the line moves confidently in one direction, then follow the line. I took several options using this strategy. The first is when the handicap changed by 1 or more points in basketball and if it went by 0.1 in football. The result is identical to the previous one. But what’s interesting in both the first and second cases are such periods when at a distance of 200-300 bets the RIO turns out to be more than 10%, but then without changing the algorithm everything turns upside down and in the end, after 800-900 bets you come back to where you came from , i.e. to zero.
3. I compared the readings of the line in the pinnacle: the starting line and the line just before the start. If there were deviations of 0.1 points or higher, I chose this outcome. The result is much sadder than in the two previous cases; at the end of the experiments in search of a strategy, the picture was clearly visible that I was on margin and the minus here was noticeable.
4. I tried to bet on arb events according to our strategy in the marathon, but instead of the inflated odds, I chose the odds in the pinnacle, hoping to get at least 2% of the turnover. Result = break-even point.
5. On the advice of some members of my blog, I tried to place one leg of the fork in Pinnacle, when the initiator of the fork was such companies as bet365, Marathon, Dafabet, Sportingbe, Gamebookers, Sbobet, Betcity, 188bet and other less well-known ones and where, with the slightest degree of probability, one could be hiding professional player. The result of the pinnacle strategy was the same as in the fourth method of experimentation.

Conclusion: using more or less obvious facts, the possibilities for a positive outcome of the game in Pinalka ended unsuccessfully every time. I have carried out all these developments over the past 3 years. A lot of time and effort was spent searching for events, results and analysis.

As we see, in some cases, using analysis of the movement of the line in a pinnacle, we can find the break-even point, but we cannot go beyond it. It turns out that no matter how you look at it, the pinnacle line is really the most correct and it is correct at any moment of accepting a bet. And in order to win at pinnacle, you need to find out more information in this period of time and before other players do.

Naturally, I haven’t completely abandoned my experiments and I believe one hundred percent that the pinnacle strategy will still be born. But so far there is no food for the brain. We need something new...

Actually, here I would like to talk with everyone who is interested in finding a pinnacle strategy. Who might have some thoughts, guesses, opinions, etc. Happy to listen and discuss.

p.s. Together we are strong.

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Novel

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What if you watch successful privateers and compare the dynamics of the loaded coefficient? Collect a sample of such privateers and derive the general trend of the loaded odds.

The strategy is similar to your first one, only in your case you relied simply on the movement of the Pinnacle line, and in this case the behavior of the players betting behind the privateer is taken as support.

True, you will have to create a lot of parsers, search for successful privateers on Pinnacle, buy their subscriptions, and conduct analytics.

In my thoughts I understand what you mean, but alas, I am not able to build such a parser. :) And one more thing... there are such cases that privateers who do not have subscribers (and I think the lion’s share of all those who play piano) according to the latest information, load a serious amount within one minute for several maximum bets in a row. In this case, the price may fall by 0.2 points. Either the analytical department of the pinnacle will sniff out this - the amendment will immediately be significant. We will be able to see this in the scanner, but physically we will not have time to put it in the pinnacle. Only in an office with a late line.

It would be nice to learn to recognize when the line is being bent by the pros and when by the analysts.


Alexander

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For more than 3 months I have been analyzing the movement of the odds of Pinka and other bookmakers; before that, I analyzed matches without this, in the end I came to the conclusion that the relationship is very deeply buried, but not everything is so bad.

What we finally managed to dig up:

1. It’s not enough to just follow the kick line; you also need to watch the movement at other bookmakers.
2. An analysis of statistics, the position of the standings, player injuries, and knowledge of how good the teams are at a given period of time will also help in this matter.
3. The most important point that is worth looking at is not only movements along p1, x, p2, but also handicaps, totals, this is where the grail is buried, in my opinion. I myself am now intensely paying more attention to this, and as I wrote above, not only for kicking, but also for other offices.
4. Conclusion: If you master all these intricacies, then it is quite possible to achieve positive results at a distance.
5. I’m also looking for smart guys to create a small community to beat bookmaker lines together, I also created a whole website for this, a forecast league http://sportoops.com/, so that in the future I can make money not only on my bets, but also additionally on mailings, on the website Convenient forecast distribution services have been implemented, both free and premium, with very advanced accounting implementation.


Alexander

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The first tests of enhanced monitoring and operation of the scheme can be assessed on the website odds 2++, also according to this scheme it was planned to simultaneously with p1(p2) handicap -1, which would have raised the odds to 3(4)+ and added additional profit, 4 forecasts and everyone came in, also yesterday 2 but didn’t post it, checked. The fact that it’s not showing off is my topic on mmgp and beef yesterday. I keep testing...

Thank you! I'll definitely watch it. The fact of the matter is that if you record the moment of a line shift (not a single one, but a massive one across all offices), then this is already a bell. And if you start digging into what caused this movement - what important information, then the price will drop even lower, losing its attractiveness. A different approach is needed here. And so everything again comes down to banal analytics of a sporting event. By the way, what is your sample size for this pinnacle strategy?


Alexander

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The sample so far is only 7 bets and all have passed, I started trying 2 days ago, only recently I have finalized the points I missed earlier, but the odds are 2++ and the most interesting thing is that 3 bets out of these 7 had a -1 handicap (specifically on home ones and -2 even passed would), the rest would go back, the odds would accordingly exceed 3.5-4.


Alexander

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By the way, there is very little analytics there, it’s easier to say more common sense logic, but scrolling through the statistics is not a long task, the push to bet comes precisely after analyzing the line.

Clear. Well, at this stage this doesn’t mean anything yet. You yourself should understand that for more or less objective data you need to make at least 500-700 bets. And often this is not enough. For some specific types of strategies, my indicator after 700 bets was about 10% of the turnover, and by 1000 it reached the break-even point. So it's not easy work. Especially when you consider that bets are not made automatically, and each bet is given time for analysis, etc.


Alexander

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For example, according to statistics, Norwich should have lost to Derby County, well, at best, a draw, but the line said that the handicap should be -1.5 (-2). Although the 5:0 victory over Brandford gave hope that p1 should fly. In any case, knowledge of the clubs would not hurt.


Alexander

• Offline

Here's another example: Stoke - Watford, here both the movement of the line and statistics indicate that even a handicap of -1.5 should be accepted, so you can take a handicap of 1 for 2.6, which is also a good odds. Stoke must beat Watford, a 10-minute statistical analysis. But for example, with Crystal Palace - Swansea, the line says that there is something wrong there and you shouldn’t take him, although Swansea is also playing poorly now, that is, they can grab a draw. Next Bournemouth - Arsenal, the handicap looks -1 for 2.45, after the same 10-minute analysis. Of course, we can study it in even more detail, but in half an hour we already have something.


Alexander

• Offline

By the way, Watford also has a lot of injured players.


Alexander

• Offline

Also, with minus handicaps, you can put down p1, p2, you never know when they hit 2 goals. In any case, the odds are normal, even if you pass 40-45%+ there will be a profit.

A value bet is a bet with an advantage over the line in terms of the probability of the outcome of events. That is, if the bookmaker believes that the probability of each tennis player winning is 50% to 50%, and you think that the probability is 55% to 45%, then you play for the outcome whose probability in your opinion = 55%. In this case, the bet is considered a value bet, because you made it with an advantage over the line, or as it is correct to say: with a positive mate. waiting. If you constantly place bets with a positive mathematical expectation, then you will be in the black at a distance (this advantage, naturally, should cover the bookmaker’s margin).

A table to help you:

For example, the match Querrey - Raonic. If you estimate the probability of this event to be 50/50, you do not see any advantages in any of the tennis players, then both a bet with odds greater than 2 on Querrey and a bet with odds more than 2 on Raonic. Both bets will be for value. Those. in fact, while the odds were moving here, you could play 2+ for both Querrey and Raonic, and both bets would be value bets if the real probability of the outcome of the event was 50/50.

From 9 to 12 am on Querri it even reached 2.16

There are no values ​​in “kick”!

Now let's dispel the myth that there are no values ​​in Pinnacle, because... there are the most professional analysts who set the line as competently as possible. And for us, ordinary people who sit at home at the computer with a glass of beer, it is quite difficult to make a more accurate analysis than a professional team at a top bookmaker does.

This is partly true, but not all. Let me give you a couple of illustrative examples from last week instead of long texts, which will prove that there are values ​​in Pinnacle.

Fabbiano - Clan. 2.22 for Fabbiano, 2.02 for Clan.

De Minaur - Southern. 1.79 on De Minaura, 2.60 on Yuzhny

De Minaur - Johnson. 2.90 for De Minaur, 1.92 for Johnson.

1.79 for De Minaur or 2.6 for Yuzhny? 2.22 for Fabbiano or 2.02 for Klan? 2.90 for De Minaur or 1.92 for Johnson?

One of the 2 coefficients is EXACTLY valued (simple mathematics), and it may well be that both are valued.

In such cases, it cannot be said that there are no Values ​​if, as in the match with Querrey - Raonic or Clan - Fabbiano, we are offered odds of more than two in both directions. Of course, not at the same time. And there are many such events, the odds move, and during a certain period of time, either at the beginning, or in the middle, or at the end, very often there are values. But these values ​​disappear relatively quickly (from a couple of minutes to a couple of hours).

If the bookmaker has set incorrect quotes, then professional players will quickly move the line in the right direction. But sometimes this line moves too much, in my opinion, and you can already flirt in the other direction. Not long ago there was a match between Shapovalov and Tim. And the betting mass began to overload Shapovalov, although it was competent and correct, I agreed with them, but they overloaded it so much that Tim was given 1.9, and this, in my opinion, was already too much. I considered Tim to be a 1.9 value bet, although before the match I didn’t even have the thought of flirting with Tim. I hope this has been sorted out.

What if quotes don't change at all?

From experience, there are usually much fewer values ​​in stable quotes. What is the chance that the value you found is not seen by most major players? Small. There is a chance when there is a nuance that everyone takes into account, but from experience you consider it “noise,” or vice versa. For example, Del Potro's fatigue before the match with Raonic. Everyone thinks that this will have no effect, but you think that it will be important in the upcoming meeting.

Or, for example, Zverev - Seppi in Rotterdam (quotes for P1/P2 did not change significantly). Almost everyone has forgotten that at the tournament in Rotterdam they play with balls from Technebrief, and not Head, which A. Zverev hates. As a result, both Ferrer and Seppi took almost all of Zverev’s first serves into the back court. As a result, everything worked out for Seppi, since Sasha’s serve did not work because of the balls. In general, like these mini-nuances.

But there are still more values ​​in those coefficients that have changed.

But how do you catch these things? How to monitor the movement of odds? How to be ready for the line to exit in order to quickly pick up your value?

How to “catch” valui in Pinnacle?

The main thing: you need to thoroughly understand your sport.

You need to watch matches, analyze all the data, even before the bookmaker rolls out the line, i.e. you need to determine the class of players, watch personal meetings, find out motivation, look at their last matches, statistics, see how the player performs against left-handers/right-handers, how he performs in this particular tournament, what his dynamics are during the tournament, whether he is tired or not, how much time he spent on the court, etc. etc.. In general, all your experience, all the data that is available, you collect and analyze. And perhaps you will form your own opinion about the probabilities of outcomes in the upcoming event. For example, 70% for player 1, 30% for player 2.

And it’s better to write this down somewhere before the line goes out. For example, the line Anderson – Coric comes out. I’m ready to play if they offer Coric +4 for 1.9, or I’m ready to play Anderson if they offer Kevin for 1.75, for example. You would consider Coric +4 a value bet and Anderson at 1.75 you could also consider a value bet. Also, you think that there will be a fight, and if they offer a total of more than 22 for 1.9, then you are also ready to play this bet, since in your opinion the probability of breaking the total is 65%. And before the line is pumped out for you, it is advisable that you already have your own outlines, sketches and thoughts of what you are ready to play.

But if you are not good at sports, then this is difficult to do. You will consider the bet to be a value bet, but in reality it will not be one.

Once you have your thoughts formed, you need to be ready for the line to come out, because once Pinnacle hits the line, you won't have very much time to play the value bet. If the bet is very valuable, then you will have about 5 minutes to play it. If it’s just a regular value bet, then you will have about 20-90 minutes to win the desired outcome.

Those. you need to be prepared for the line to go out.

How to find out when a line is released via Pinnacle?

The easiest way is to negotiate with a programmer so that he will develop software for you that would give you signals when the line for a given tournament is released. That is, if a line is released, say for the Indian Wells semi-final, then you immediately receive a signal to your software and you can immediately go to Pinnacle and see what is happening there. But it is clear that this is a rather specific topic and this software will not be cheap for you. I haven’t seen such options on the Internet, there are such beacons for football (the guys from mellbet made them), but there are no such beacons for tennis available on the network. But let’s assume that we don’t have that kind of money yet, we’re not ready to spend it on it, and we’re not yet sure that we’ll have anything in this area to spend the money on. Therefore, in this case, we will try to catch the coefficient manually.

We find our coefficient manually. How does this happen? We are finishing up matches, for example, ¼ finals. Both Del Potro and Raonic finished their match. After this, we have a certain countdown until the bookmaker does his analysis and rolls out the line.

In most cases, the first to roll out the line are the twin brothers, Marathon and 1xBet. After them usually comes Pinnacle. Focusing on quotes, Pinky and everyone else are already climbing out of the gorges with their quotes. We will focus on Marathon and Pinnacle.

Approximate time for the line to reach P1/P2:

1st round- The Marathon rolls out approximately half a day after the draw. - Pinnacle 4-6 hours after the Marathon. Occasionally 30 minutes to 1 hour after the Marathon, if the upcoming meetings are less than a day away.

2nd round - ¼ finals- The marathon starts 2-4 hours after the end of the last meeting. Depends on the stage/tournament/time. Conditional Dubai (500-nick + day) will roll out faster than Sao Paulo (250-nick + night). - Pinnacle will roll out 15 minutes - 1 hour after the Marathon (sometimes a little faster than the Marathon)

½ finals - final- Marathon 10 minutes - 1 hour after the end of the meetings. - Pinnacle, approximately 30 minutes after the Marathon.

This is all for the main outcomes. What about handicaps, totals and other things?

Let's take a closer look at handicaps and totals:

At Marathon, the main line of handicaps and totals (with odds around 1.9) comes out simultaneously with P1/P2. Those. All time frames described above are also suitable for handicaps with totals. All that remains is to deal with the pinnacle.

1st round- from 1 hour to 5 hours after the release of quotes on P1/P2. You can’t guess exactly: Pinnacle rolled out to Acapulco in 30 minutes, and to Dubai in 5 hours

2nd round - final- In 2/3 of cases, 1 hour after the release of P1/P2 in Pinnacle.

Around this time you need to be online, you need to go to oddsportal.com or directly to Pinnacle and monitor when the line for the desired match comes out.

Minus: LIMITS. The line that just came out (fresh) has quite unpleasant limits on one bet. For ATP qualification, challenger or left match of the 1st round, it can cost $300-500. But this does not mean that you cannot deposit a larger amount. You just need to bet $500 10 times. Naturally, after each bet you make, the odds may change.

What to do if the new line does not contain value odds, in your opinion?

There is no trial. In this case, we are waiting for the quotes to change and, perhaps, the change in quotes will lead to the fact that we still receive, in our opinion, a value coefficient. But there is a day before the match, it is quite difficult to monitor the whole day every 30-60 minutes how the odds change.

So we download the PinnacleSports app, register, and find the match we need. We go into the desired match and see the main outcomes (W1/W2) and the main totals and handicaps, clicking on some outcome, we will see a graph of changes in odds.

For example, let's take the match: Del Potro - Raonic. Let's say we consider odds = 3 on Raonic - we value. We enter under the graph the value in our opinion of the value coefficient. If the odds on Raonic become equal to 3 (or more), then we will receive a notification. This is quite convenient because as soon as this quote reaches 3, you can quickly place a bet.

Works for W1/W2 and main outcomes based on handicaps and totals. If you want to bet on a +3 handicap, then you need to monitor it yourself.

This is suitable not only if you use and bet at Pinnacle, because... The vast majority of bookmakers move the line according to the pinnacle, therefore, in other offices, most likely, the quotes will also change, only with a delay, which is even better for you. Therefore, if you bet somewhere completely different, in the conditional FonBet, FonBet will still move the line along with the global community.

This is actually how the “catching” of valuevs occurs. I call it catching, because they usually don’t lie around in a visible place for a long time.

Let's summarize. How do we look for value?

1. You need to thoroughly understand your chosen sport.
2. We analyze upcoming events.
3. We assume which odds are valuable for us. We write them down somewhere in a notebook or somewhere in a laptop or phone.
4. We are waiting for Pinnacle to roll out its line (approximate time intervals above)
5. If, in your opinion, there are value coefficients, then we review everything again, if everything is ok, we flirt.
6. If, in your opinion, there are no values ​​there, go to the Pinnacle application and enter, in our opinion, value odds into the alerts.
7. If the quote reaches the value we need, then we will immediately receive a notification and we will be able to play the selected outcome (+ we check if any news has come out that could affect the growth of the odds).

All. I hope this was helpful. Good luck!

Many successful players, having had the bitter experience of playing in offices that reduce betting limits, are looking for all sorts of ways to beat the Pinnacle bookmaker

Many people get nervous; frequent purchases of new accounts are not always justified. When the game is winning, the cuts to Mr. offices come one after another. And they kick you out of the offices regardless of whether you are an arber or an analyst. Then the attention of players turns to the Pinnacle. After all, Pinnacle is one of the few companies that does not pursue winners and pays out all winnings fairly, while never reducing bet limits.

I wrote about how to beat a bookmaker using information in the section on strategies*, and Pinnacle bookmaker also fits these strategies. With the right approach, you can earn a lot of money in this office. Yes, I agree, all things being equal, it’s not as much and as stable as in the Marathon, but you can earn money. But all these methods are analytical. You need to sit for hours, find information on the Internet about teams, injuries, disqualifications and other important information. The main thing in this matter is to get ahead of Pinnacle and other players in terms of the quality and freshness of information, before the flow of money arrives and the Pinnacle line falls. Or until the linemarkers themselves corrected the line.

This is not an easy task. In addition, every day we will not find many such bets with inflated odds on the pinnacle line. Another thing is to find a way to beat Pinnacle using a technical approach.

Many players, and I am no exception here, devote a lot of time to testing various strategies with loyal bookmakers. The basis of such strategies is the movement of odds.

I posted all my tests and their results on my forum

So, from my long experiments, I concluded that the correctness of the pinnacle line in a certain period of time is close to perfection and maximum accuracy. I temporarily gave up. I wish I could spend so much time on tests... But my following observations added optimism. Somehow, while analyzing the positive mailings of Pinnacle bets from other privateers, I came to the conclusion that there are still ways to beat the Pinnacle bookmaker using technical analysis of the line.

Let's use an example to take a closer look at sending out pinnacle bets from one author. The example is taken from the betting exchange betonsuccess.ru, and the newsletter is called fork.ARB.L www.betonsuccess.ru/sub/25186/fork.ARB.L/stats/all/

If we go into a detailed analysis of the rates of this newsletter, we see the following picture separately for the offices.

It doesn’t take much intelligence to understand from the history of bets and comments on the mailing wall that all forecasts are arb! The author of the mailing list fork.ARB.L places forks between bookmakers, which we can see from the list of mailing companies. Including Pinnacle and even Sbobet forks with these companies.

As a result, after making 224 pinnacle bets, the author has a good profit of 9.9% on turnover! Such a profit from this office is an impossible dream for many privateers. But, as we see, the author of the newsletter succeeds with a bang.

There is a certain nuance: all forks are taken with a profit of at least 5%. This raises a logical question: *What then can be done with the statement that Pinnacle cannot be beaten on surebet games?*

It can be argued that 224 pinnacle bets is a very small distance and such a profit may be due to a mathematical deviation. But if you look closely, you can add another 86 bets on Sbobet. I put this company in second place for the correctness of the line after Pinnacle

Then I found out that there is at least one more newsletter on concrete (it was added later) - the status of which is marked as fork* This is a newsletter called BetPS_V2.ARB.L. To date, the author has made 295 bets on Pinnacle and has a profit of + 1.4% from turnover. The total sample of bets (608 pcs.) smooths out the dispersion, gives a slightly smaller profit, but it is still more than 5% of turnover.

How these privateers manage to beat the Pinnacle bookmaker using forks is a mystery to me at the moment.

One can only speculate and guess about the approximate bid selection algorithm that each author uses.

1. All arbs take a minimum of 5% return. More often 6-8%
2. Rates are not flat, but according to a fixed profit strategy.

It seems to me that for certain sports the line in Pinnacle is not ideal, because it is not without reason that some small tennis tournaments and football leagues have recently been removed from the line. And the mailing data in question once again proves that today there are ways to beat Pinnacle.

Who knows, maybe you should take the marathon as a basis and do everything exactly the opposite - bet on surebets not 0.4-2%, but more than 5% and skip events where Pinnacle is the initiator, and look, there will be good chances of achieving success. In any case, there is food for thought. I’ll find some free time and definitely test this strategy.

If anyone has thoughts, comments or objections about this, comments are open to you.

Movement of odds in a bookmaker's office

You've probably noticed more than once how bookmakers' odds for various events change several times throughout the day. At the same time, it is very difficult to predict how and by what amount the odds at bookmakers will change. Sometimes the coefficient changes slightly, but sometimes it can change significantly. We will try to understand the reasons for changing the odds in the line of bookmakers, as well as how to use it in this article. Let me remind you that the value of the coefficient significantly affects the profit in long-term play. Therefore, we recommend the most reliable and best bookmaker with the highest odds, Pinnaclesports.

"Load" of the bookmaker's line

Changes in bookmaker odds occur for various reasons, such as injuries, team composition, weather conditions, motivation and a number of other important factors not taken into account when setting odds initially. However, there is another important factor that influences the change in quotes like no other. This factor is the “load” of the line. “Loading” means the accumulation of a large amount of money on one of the outcomes. Naturally, bookmakers do not like it when, for reasons that are not entirely clear to them, huge amounts of money are bet on one sporting event. Firstly, this raises certain suspicions that the match is of a fixed nature, and secondly, it negatively affects the equalization of the bookmaker’s profits. Naturally, the bookmaker’s response to the “overload” of a certain coefficient is to lower it. However, it is worth noting that not every change in the odds at a bookmaker is a “load”.

Types of “load” in bookmakers

There are two main types of “load”: amateur and “smart”. In the first case, the “load” is carried out by simple sports betting fans, many of whom may not even be aware of the existence of “loads”. Amateur “loads” are usually formed by the spontaneous accumulation of money by a large number of players on one of the outcomes (usually the favorite). Moreover, this is done without deliberate collusion, but simply because “the favorite must win.” Bookmakers usually do not take into account amateur “load” when adjusting their odds.

Bookmakers are much more afraid of smart “loading” carried out by large professional players, cappers and syndicates. These people don’t just bet their money, and if large sums of “smart” money are “loaded” onto some odds, then bookmakers try to quickly respond to these actions. It’s no secret that all bookmakers monitor each other’s odds in order to always be aware of the “loads” and movements of their competitors’ lines. Usually, in the case of a simultaneous movement of the odds in several offices by two or three points, the remaining bookmakers try to immediately equalize the odds so as not to be the next victim of the “overload”. Unlike an amateur “weight,” a smart “weight” bends the line immediately and significantly.

The main driving force behind “smart forecasts” are cappers, major players in bookmakers and members of syndicates. The goal of all these people is value betting, that is, betting on inflated odds. Having discovered such odds, players bet large sums on them, which causes the line to sag.

Large players and syndicate members have the greatest influence on quotes. The former take it as their gaming “bank”, which allows them to operate with considerable sums. The second is the number of players. Players who subscribe to the forecast of a professional capper usually place decent bets. In this regard, the total “load” of the members of one such syndicate turns out to be quite significant. You can find more information about the smart money movement here.

Only a professional player can determine the value of a bet from bookmakers, so most of the betters who want to profit from profitable bets join syndicates that purchase verified forecasts of professional players who have been making forecasts for many years. Members of a syndicate usually have an advantage over players hunting for value alone, since the efficiency of forecasters is higher than that of most solo players. Consequently, syndicate members place their bets earlier, which is a very important advantage, since after the first wave of “loading” the coefficient drops significantly. This means that those who bet later will bet at a lower odds, which by then, as a rule, will cease to be “valuable”.

Current movement of odds and loads for sporting events