“There will still be a war in Crimea, that’s for sure,” a Feodosia marine at a meeting with Nikolaev students. Will there be a war in Crimea

The correct answer is “never”. More precisely, I would like to believe in it. What doubts can there be? Well, the United States and Europe did not recognize Crimea as part of Russia, well, the crawling Kyiv junta Poroshenko is waving its bloody fists and swearing the peninsula into Bandera’s stall - we shouldn’t be afraid of them, Moscow is behind us!
And yet... I propose, first, to answer the questions of a small test:
1.Are you absolutely sure that after Putin, Russia will not be ruled by politicians at the level of Khrushchev-Yeltsin? Are you sure that they won’t give Crimea to anyone “for a bottle”?
2.Are you absolutely sure that there will be no Third World War?
3.Are you absolutely sure that, for example, Turkey has said goodbye forever to the age-old dream of direct influence on Crimea?
4.Are you absolutely sure that the “fifth column” (Mejlisists, Wahhabis, pro-Bandera militants) has been completely neutralized in Crimea? Are you sure that in case of “X” the internal enemy will not be reborn again and will not shoot you in the back?
5.Are you absolutely sure that today the spies of the Right Sector are not in Crimea and are not plotting terrorist attacks and murders?
If you answered positively to all the questions, then you are a complete optimist, I congratulate you, because you definitely don’t have to read my thoughts under the cut.
Of course, we are also optimists. And we are convinced that in the ominous case “X” Putin will save us, Kadyrov will gallop in with his mighty cavalry, green men will appear (from nowhere) and bearded Cossacks and exotic Serbian Chetniks will cover us with their broad chests. Yes, I once rolled the ball. We lay back on the sofas, watching the clash at the walls of the Supreme Council of Crimea. And in general, we looked at the stormy moments of the “Crimean Spring” through the slot of a fork from a nearby cafe. Will you be lucky again?
It is curious that the residents of Ukraine treat the “Crimean issue” very calmly. They are convinced that “after Putin, Crimea will quietly and calmly return to Ukraine, and US and NATO peacekeepers will guarantee this return. Let's laugh at their naivety. Or let's read this paragraph again from the beginning. And let's think about it.

Let's not invent an image of the enemy. Even if the Martians become invaders, this will not make it any easier for us. But if the Great Bucha begins (they start attacking Grozny, or bombing Moscow), then no one will help Crimea. There will simply be no time for us. And then we will get the full reward for our frivolity.

For many years, we, Crimean Russians, were taught nonsense about the friendship of peoples, treated to a slave stew called “tolerance,” and taught to be hospitable lackeys in the resort Crimea. And our enemies at this time were training to sharpen knives and cut throats. Isn't it time to stop the criminal practice of defeatist peacefulness?
One example - in the most neutral country in the world, Switzerland - the world's largest percentage of the population is ... in the army! Search the Internet and you will find a lot of interesting things on this topic.
In the history of Crimea there were many bloody and heroic wars, but we are trying to forget about it. And if you remember it, then, formally, on school lines. And even then, less and less often. In vain.

Crimea has always been a tasty morsel for those eager to grab someone else’s. Therefore, no matter how we, Crimeans, indulge ourselves with illusions, the situation is simple: war cannot be avoided. When will the war start in Crimea? Maybe in a century, maybe in a year, maybe by lunchtime. But the question is better asked differently: what will you do in this war? You definitely won't be able to hide under the table. And run away too. There is only one way out - to meet and defeat the enemy with dignity. Everyone. To each of us. And, above all, to the Russians - the main, most trusting, peace-loving and demilitarized population of the peninsula.

What do you need for this?
1. The Crimean program of military-patriotic training of the population is necessary (hereinafter - for men and women). With mandatory practical training in shooting and hand-to-hand combat.
2.Introduction of lessons or extracurricular activities on Basic Military Training at school, from the fifth grade. Particular attention is paid not to combat skills, but to practical training with weapons and physical training.
3. State and local support of the Russian scout (young scouts) movement in Crimea.
4. Revival, mass and regular holding of paramilitary games such as “Zarnitsa” - for age groups from 10 to 16 years.
5. Opening of children's health camps with a military-patriotic bias.
6. Opening of higher military institutions on the territory of the peninsula (there is teaching staff for this)
7. State and local support for the Cossacks, popularization of the ideas of the Cossacks as defenders of the borders of the Fatherland.
8. The widespread opening of free courses in hand-to-hand combat, shooting, training in medical care skills, etc. for adults and everyone. Government support for these courses.
9.Before army training of conscripts and post-army work with those transferred to the reserve.
10. Revival, development and strengthening of the role of DND. Expanding the powers of the DND.
11.Regulation of the status of the People's Self-Defense Forces.
12.Creation of a single center for coordinating the interaction of all military-patriotic units of Crimea. The school military instructor must know the head of the DND, the Cossack atamans, the leaders of the scout movement and vice versa.
13. Introduction of a reward system for success in military-patriotic work.

Will such “militarization” of the civilian population of Crimea scare away vacationers? Vice versa! If visitors know that Crimeans are able to protect themselves and their guests, their vacation will seem much calmer.

Why even touch on the topic of protecting Crimea and Crimeans? Don’t those who are now in power know this, don’t understand the obvious? Surely they understand. But “understand” and “act” are different categories. Therefore, finally, one more test question:
- Are you absolutely sure that the Crimean authorities will allocate enough material resources to implement the above-mentioned points of physical rescue of Crimeans? Will they provide all possible support to these endeavors? And that the authorities will even take all this seriously?
So I'm not sure. This means that now, without waiting for government decisions and programs, discuss in your family how to raise your son as a worthy defender of the Fatherland. How to properly raise a daughter so that her children love and defend their homeland. Explain to your children and grandchildren what “values” the enemy wants to impose on us. Tell us why it is necessary to defend our native Crimea. Remember that you are Russian. Don't forget that you are Orthodox. You should be in the temple no less often than in the gym and training ground.
Are there any grown men in the house? Take a break from beer and football, enjoy the old days, go jogging, study or refresh your memory of the “materiel”. Find like-minded people on the street or in your high-rise building. Patrol your area, start with simple walks. Even if all these skills and precautions do not come in handy (I, like you, also hope so), a personal system of internal mobilization will raise not only your self-esteem, you will look different in the eyes of your family.

And only after all this can we say without a doubt that the enemy will be defeated.
And victory will be ours!

A soldier of the 1st Feodosia Separate Marine Battalion of the Ukrainian Navy, who is currently stationed in Nikolaev, told students of the Institute of History and Law of NNU. Sukhomlinsky about how the occupation of Crimea took place and what is happening now on the peninsula.

The meeting took place within the framework of the so-called “dignity lesson”, organized by the dean’s office of the former history faculty and the Azov civil corps.

The Marine, who called himself Boris, communicated with students in the buff, justifying himself by saying that he was related to military intelligence and, according to the regulations, should not show off his “profile.” On the eve of the second anniversary of the Revolution of Dignity, the “black beret”, together with other military personnel, told young people about the pitfalls of the Russian occupation in Crimea, which occurred immediately after the bloody events on the Maidan and the escape of the ex-president from the country Viktor Yanukovych.

« There will still be a war in Crimea, that's for sure“, - the ex-Feodosian, and now a fighter of the 1st Marine Brigade named after Konstantin Olshansky, assembled from disbanded Crimean military units, argues emotionally, but quite logically.

- When the question is asked why the military did not act, why was everything so simple? I answer - because there was one team from Kyiv, it was sabotaged somewhere along the way, and in Crimea it was not carried out at all. Therefore, it is very difficult to assess why the military did not do this or that way., - Boris argues.

The Marine base in Feodosia was one of the last to be captured. For three weeks, starting from March 2, 2014, when the ultimatum of the “little green men” to hand over their weapons and swear allegiance to Crimea and Russia was first heard at their checkpoint, the Marines bravely defended themselves. They dug trenches, built barricades, and were on duty around the entire perimeter around the clock, repelling assault attempts and stopping provocations. On March 23, the Russian army began to pull additional forces to the base - trucks and armored personnel carriers. It became clear that an armed assault could not be avoided. The next night, Russian troops landed on the battalion's territory from helicopters. Meanwhile, the gates and concrete walls were broken through by armored personnel carriers. Stun grenades were thrown at Ukrainian officers. The infantrymen were beaten, thrown onto the asphalt, and tied up. Commander of a military unit Dmitry Delyatitsky(current commander of the 1st Marine Brigade) and his deputy Rostislav Lomtev captured - put into a helicopter and taken to an unknown direction.

One hundred and forty marines who remained faithful to the oath of Ukraine (about four hundred soldiers agreed to serve Russia) were forced by the invaders to leave the military unit and escorted in the Urals to Chongar, Kherson region. Here they were met by buses sent by the Kherson regional administration, on which the children were taken to Melitopol, and from there they were taken by plane to Kyiv, and only then redeployed to Nikolaev.

A young man in camouflage recalls those events not without emotion. No matter how, Crimea remains home for him, where he wants to return.

- Listen to me, not as a military man, but as a civilian, as an activist, he says.

About the Crimean protests

- A heterogeneous mass of people live in Crimea and it cannot be said that everyone supports Russia. Then, the mood in society was initially fueled by the communists and the Party of Regions, saying that Maidan was a trap of the West, that they wanted to divide us. But in the end we see who wanted to divide whom. Naturally, this is all untrue, because we see how everything turned out later. And people, receptive to such calls, gathered and held rallies. Therefore, it was easy to warm up this mass and force it to take active action.

About the "little green men"

- After Yanukovych escaped to Sevastopol, unknown armed people began to appear on Chongar, the movement of troops began, the masses began to warm up to all this and understand what was happening. But at the same time, many did not understand that these people are Russians who travel freely around Crimea on military equipment and seize buildings and hang Russian flags. They were called “little green men”, “polite people”, but not military personnel of the Russian Federation. It's funny now. Especially watching the news feeds of that time. You laugh and wonder how it was all presented then. In Ukraine they did not understand what was happening there, just as many now do not understand what is happening in the East of the country. To understand this, you need to read what happened in the 90s in Crimea and how the fleet was divided then.

About civil formations

- Cossacks were brought in en masse, hotels were filled with unknown people in uniform, they were called “people's militia.” These people with boots and traumatic pistols walked the streets and “restored order” everywhere in Crimea. You can imagine what happened when ordinary civilians saw how armed people were walking around, how they were seizing administrative buildings when the Russian flag was hung on them. It is unknown what conclusions were drawn in our heads back then..

- And when all the key buildings were captured, a dense ring formed in the city. It started all over Crimea. Besides them, there were a bunch of buses with license plates from the Krasnodar Territory and the North Caucasus Military District. And there was no affiliation with Ukraine or Crimea there. These people had the go-ahead and the unspoken green light to restore so-called “order” in Crimea. People's squads were created to replace the police, but the police did absolutely nothing at that time. She wore a uniform and, as in many cities of Ukraine then, she burned some documents, now no one will know what.

About sabotage

- When the Council of Ministers and the Verkhovna Rada were captured by the Russian GRU forces, the command was givenassault companyour battalion, which was stationed in Feodosia, went to clear these buildings, since the police, Berkut and Alpha refused to carry out these orders. What's the joke, halfway to completing the task, this order was canceled and everyone was taken to a permanent deployment point. This is what happened everywhere in Crimea.

About traitors

- The contingent of the Ukrainian armed forces here amounted to about 15 thousand people, of which about 5 thousand went to the mainland. Can you imagine the scale of betrayal that happened?

- All law enforcement agencies had to ensure order in that situation, and this was the special Berkut company that shot at the Maidan in Kyiv, and the SBU Special Operations Center “Alpha” in Sevastopol. They completely refused to carry out any orders from Kyiv, of their own free will. Therefore, it became impossible to influence what was happening in Crimea by force. This "Berkut" has now become a special company as part of the Russian riot police, just like these guys from "Alpha".

- Imagine that from the central department of the Crimean SBU, where there were about 300 people, only two operational officers and about half of the personnel - the SBU special forces - left. That is, you can roughly count the number of traitors, and this is in the Security Service, which is supposed to prevent such actions. And I'm not even talking about other military units. And the police even more so! Our police generally have no concept of honor, conscience and morality, I think so. That's why it all worked out that way.

About the referendum

- It was complete nonsense and a real farce. Even the ballots were printed handicraft on ordinary printers without any distinctive signs, as on real ballots. One day, a referendum was held at gunpoint, which 97% of the population of Crimea could not attend.

About the assault on ships and military units of Marines

- Our units fought back in Feodosia, but ours were deceived by the Russians. Once again, the commander of the Black Sea Fleet came, then the commander of the Southern Military District and offered to hand over the weapons to the weapons rooms. This was presented under the guise that no one needed shootings, the civilian population would suffer: “Hand over your weapons and go on your own...”. But ours, as usual, believed the Russians, and what happened happened - an armed seizure of the unit, the commander and chief of staff were beaten, taken in a helicopter to the Black Sea Fleet headquarters in a punishment cell. They were sitting there. They were offered big money to stay in Crimea.

- When our sailors left the Konstantin Olshansky, the engine room and wheelhouse were filled with concrete so that the Russians wouldn’t get it. They saw no other way out. And the minesweeper "Cherkassy" surrendered to the Russians because it was blocked by the old ship "Ochakov", which they sank near Donuzlav. Now this is their second monument to “sunk ships” in honor of this event. The Russians have this peculiarity - “everything that was sunk, we will make a monument out of it.” The ship "Slavutich" was also damaged by our sailors.

About evacuation from the peninsula

- The Russians escorted our military at gunpoint. Thank you for giving us the opportunity to take us out, huh. But the Russians kept all the best things (from technology - ed.) for themselves. And then small arms and equipment captured in Crimea were discovered in Donbass.

“Even for those who are not local, it was difficult for them to make the decision to evacuate.” Many people served from Feodosia, Lugansk and Donetsk; they left with pain in their hearts. They even cried, needless to say, not like a man, not like a military man. Because people spent several years of their lives there.

On the attitude towards medals from the command

- In Kyiv we were given the so-called “For Virtue” medals. But we have a joke in our battalion that no one wears them, no one considers them medals. And no one considers them worthy of wearing them, because Crimea, it’s a shame, but we... lost.

About the fate of traitors

- Many stayed, but quit and just live there. And those who serve are no longer in the positions they previously occupied. Absolutely all of them were demoted. According to our intelligence information, a huge number of former Ukrainian military personnel are currently fighting in Syria. And this is not some kind of internet stuffing or rumors. Conscripts go to Syria, Russian contract soldiers go, they receive double salaries for ground operations, and coffins from Syria are steadily coming to Sevastopol. The war for Russian interest continues. It’s incomprehensible that all this is happening, but people are still happy.

About people in Crimea

- People are happy that there is no war, but they do not draw parallels, why this war is going on (in the east of Ukraine - ed.) or they do not want to see it.

- The problem with Russians is that they are afraid to admit their own mistakes and admit reality. They like to imagine themselves as the “third Rome”, they like to imagine themselves as the most important on planet Earth, the most important in the universe.

About the military threat from militarized Crimea

- The threat exists, the Black Sea Fleet has been replenished with dozens of watercraft this year, and up to a dozen more watercraft are also expected to be replenished next year. Just so you understand, the Russians dominate both the Azov and Black Seas. They even captured Ukrainian oil production bases. Everything can be expected from them, including the continuation of the conflict. But I don’t think it’s from Crimea. Crimea is more of a transshipment base for them. But in Crimea they will stand until the last. And if events unfold like this, there will still be a war in Crimea, that’s for sure.

About Nikolaev

- Of course it didn’t become a second home, I really want to go home. But my friends from Nikolaev greeted me well and always help. I would like Nikolaev, as a city of shipbuilders and a city of the fleet, to know that military personnel from Crimea, marines and sailors are stationed here. I would like Nikolaev to be reborn again as a city of naval glory.

The introduction of martial law in several regions of Ukraine after Russian aggression against Ukrainian warships trying to pass through the Kerch Strait caused mixed reactions in society.

Many people are perplexed: why, they say, martial law was introduced only now, and not when Crimea was annexed from Ukraine and part of the Donetsk and Lugansk regions was occupied.

But, unfortunately, or maybe fortunately, the common man does not know the true state of affairs. The situation with the captured Ukrainian warships is an open signal that Russia is ready for a new round of aggression - for a big war against the “brotherly people.”

I am sure that the leadership of Ukraine, introducing martial law, knows the full depth of the threat, moreover, this threat is growing every day, and therefore this decision is justified by the current situation.

Russian emigrant publicist Arkady Babchenko, who also worked as a war correspondent, on Radio Krym.Realii identified the threat of a full-scale war between Russia and Ukraine as 99%.

That is, the journalist says that war is inevitable, and the only question is when it will happen.

I think Arkady Babchenko has enough information to take his forecasts with a high degree of seriousness.

It is clear that Russia is not ready for a big war over the so-called “DPR” and “LPR,” but the Putin regime is ready for full-scale aggression over Crimea. This is evidenced by the statements of high-ranking Russian officials. The head of the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Sergei Lavrov, said that in the event of a “provocation” on the administrative border with Crimea, Ukraine “will receive an answer - no matter how small.”

If war starts, it will not seem like enough to anyone. In Russia, many still think that the Ukrainian army is still in the same form as in 2014, when the Yanukovych regime negated the combat effectiveness of the country’s Armed Forces.

Now the situation is completely different. In four years, Ukraine has acquired a modern army capable of effectively carrying out assigned tasks.

Russian jingoists, who, lying on the sofa, write on social networks that it is time for the Russian army to “restore order” in Ukraine, do not even imagine what consequences the war will lead to.

Even if it does not become the beginning of the Third World War, it will still lead to sad consequences for Russia itself - and, most likely, to its collapse.

What to say about the consequences of the big war, the annexation of Crimea itself led to a significant collapse of the Russian economy. This is where the Putin regime will collapse – complete and final.

A war with Ukraine will awaken such unrest in Russia itself that neither Lavrov nor Putin himself will think enough. But the problem is that the Putin regime, apparently, is ready for self-destruction, and therefore more dangerous than ever.

It is clear that the war will begin from Crimea. It’s not for nothing that the military and weapons were stuffed here, as they say, to the brim. All Crimean newspapers are full of advertisements about recruitment for contract service in the Russian army. It feels like the generals are ready to put all young Crimeans “under arms.”

It seems that the Kremlin is now waiting for a formal reason to move its armada to the lands of the Kherson region and beyond.

I have great concern for my native Crimean Tatar people. Indeed, in the event of a full-scale war, it is unlikely that we will avoid new deportations from Crimea. And this deportation will, apparently, to the cold expanses of Siberia.

It’s scary to even imagine what awaits our activists from the already extensive lists of those unreliable for the regime.

It’s bitter, it’s a shame that the worst experience of the 20th century is being repeated in the 21st century.

Unfortunately, from a diplomatic, economic and information war, where the aggressor suffers defeat after defeat, we are increasingly sliding into a big military conflict in which everyone will lose...

Experts believe that the war for Crimea could begin before Sunday. The situation around Crimea is rapidly moving towards a military conflict. For the first time during the Ukrainian crisis, America stated that it does not exclude the use of the US army in resolving the most acute political crisis in Ukraine. As the head of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Martin Dempsey, announced, the US Army is ready to support its allies in Europe and provide support to Kyiv if the situation escalates.

“What we're trying to tell (Russia) is not to escalate the situation further in eastern Ukraine and allow the conditions to be created to resolve the situation in Crimea,” Dempsey told PBS (his interview appears on the NATO website). Asked directly whether there was a possibility of US military intervention, Dempsey replied: "That is a question that deserves to be assessed and reconsidered as events develop." “We have treaty obligations with our NATO allies. And I assured them that if this treaty obligation is invoked (in Europe), we will respond,” the general noted.

According to Dempsey, the Russian military's invasion of Crimea creates risks for all European countries and NATO allies. “If Russia has the right to do this... to enter a sovereign country under the pretext of protecting ethnic Russians in Ukraine, then this creates risks for Europe in places where there are ethnic enclaves.”

As soon as the justification for US military intervention was voiced, the Americans moved into action. On March 10, 2014, the navies of the United States, Romania and Bulgaria began exercises in the Black Sea in close proximity to the territorial waters of Ukraine. The head of the Center for Military-Political Studies, Dmitry Tymchuk, announced this on his Facebook. One must think that this is just the beginning. The Americans still need time to agree on a format for intervention in the Crimean crisis and distribute roles with their allies.

It is logical to assume that the Ukrainian side will take on the role of instigator of the violent conflict. Perhaps it is to discuss this issue that US President Barack Obama will urgently receive Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk in Washington one of these days. According to the White House administration, the visit is scheduled for March 12. “The meeting will express the United States' strong support for the people of Ukraine, who have demonstrated inspiring courage and resilience during the crisis,” the statement said.

Kyiv has already made it clear that it is ready for direct military action. Prime Minister Yatsenyuk, addressing Russia and the Russian president, promised that Ukraine “will not retreat even an inch from its land.” And indeed, “Nezalezhnaya” is preparing at an accelerated pace for a power scenario. In the area of ​​the Perekop Isthmus, along the roads leading to Crimea, checkpoints have already been set up by Ukrainian paratroopers of the 79th Airmobile Brigade (stationed in the city of Nikolaev). Mortar positions and shelters for armored personnel carriers have been built nearby.

In Novograd-Volynsky, Zhytomyr region, the 30th separate mechanized brigade - dozens of tanks, self-propelled guns and infantry fighting vehicles - went out for some “big exercises”. The 12th separate sapper-engineering regiment stationed nearby is also ready for the march.

On March 8, a video from Zhytomyr appeared on the Internet. On it, about 200 military vehicles and 50 armored personnel carriers leave the location of the 95th airmobile brigade of the Ukrainian Armed Forces.

The troops stationed in Lviv also began to move - dozens of armored personnel carriers left the location of the 80th Airmobile Regiment. According to rumors, they moved along the highway in the direction of Rivne. On the same day, near Bila Tserkva in the Kyiv region, about 20 tanks of the 72nd separate mechanized brigade were loaded onto railway platforms.

Ukrainian artillery is also moving towards Crimea, presumably. On March 8, near Berdichev (Zhitomir region), the movement of Msta-S self-propelled howitzers of the 26th artillery brigade on heavy vehicle trailers was noted. And in Zaporozhye, local residents noted the movement of towed guns of the 2A65 type, belonging to the 55th separate artillery brigade.

Apparently, Ukrainian aviation will also be involved in the military operation. On March 9, the press service of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine stated that “the operational center of air operations of the Air Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the southern operational area is equipped in accordance with modern requirements and is ready to perform tasks as intended.” The message especially emphasizes that at the beginning of March 2014, the Ukrainian Air Force, within the framework of international treaties between Ukraine and the United States, received from the Americans additional equipment for aviation control centers.

It remains to add that Ukrainian border guards have strengthened control at the entrance to Crimea - three checkpoints have been deployed in the area of ​​​​the villages of Salkovo, Kalanchak and Chaplinka. All of them are reinforced by military personnel of mobile border units, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and the armed forces of Ukraine.

True, and O. Defense Minister Admiral Igor Tenyukh assures that no troop movements are expected towards Crimea. “The military is engaged in planned work, individual units go to training grounds in accordance with the exercise plan,” the admiral said on March 9 at a meeting of the Ukrainian government.

However, during the closed part of the meeting, acting The head of the Ministry of Defense allegedly told more interesting things. He reported that “the morale of personnel in Crimea is depressed, protest sentiments are growing in units, and the number of deserters is increasing. The military have not been paid for more than a month, and there are food shortages.” A Ukrainian official told RIA Novosti about this. To maintain the morale of the soldiers, the Cabinet of Ministers immediately decided to allocate 125 million hryvnia for one-time cash support for military personnel in Crimea.

But Yatsenyuk himself apparently has no confidence that Ukrainian military personnel will fight like lions. Therefore, the prime minister insists on strengthening the army with ideological fighters - nationalists from the Right Sector. In order to arm the militants, Yatsenyuk has already submitted a corresponding appeal to the Verkhovna Rada.

Crimean self-defense units are also preparing to repel the assault on Perekop. True, there is practically no information about their actions. What is known is that a Ukrainian reconnaissance aircraft discovered numerous military posts along the Perekop Isthmus in Crimea. This was reported on the official website of the State Border Service of Ukraine. Ukrainian drones are also probing the Crimean Isthmus - an interesting video from one of them has appeared on the Internet.

In short, the bets are placed, and the parties are waiting for the go-ahead. Another thing is clear: the denouement will come in the coming days - before the March 16 referendum on the status of the peninsula. How will events develop in Crimea, and will the United States play a key role in them?

“The Americans have arrogated to themselves the right to interfere in the internal affairs of independent states,” Colonel General, President of the Academy of Geopolitical Problems Leonid Ivashov is convinced. “In 2008, they even issued a special charter for the ground forces, called “Stabilization Operations.” This document clearly states that the United States not only has the right, but also the obligation to intervene in the affairs of states where state institutions are weak. The government in such states is declared illegitimate, and the American army intervenes to stabilize the situation within such countries.

In Ukraine, the Americans act precisely according to this charter. Initially, it was assumed that the operation to stabilize the Square would be carried out in several stages. The first is destabilization of the situation in the country, then bloodshed. And then the entry of NATO troops into the country under US leadership. But the main thing is that within the framework of this operation, the Americans are realizing their long-standing dream - to pit Russians and Ukrainians in an armed conflict.

Therefore, a violent scenario in Crimea is now very likely. It can be assumed that Ukrainian troops will begin to storm Perekop and Crimea, and then the troops of the Western allies will arrive. The Americans themselves will not take risks, but will most likely send Romanians and Bulgarians to Crimea, supposedly to stabilize the situation.

I would especially like to emphasize: the military option is most likely on the eve of the referendum in Crimea. For example, on the night of March 15-16. In any case, there will definitely be provocations from the Ukrainian side.

“SP”: – Can Russia prevent a military clash in Crimea?

– We need to actively conduct political work – in the OSCE, the Russia-NATO Council. Russia must put forward its proposals for resolving the situation, putting pressure on the fact that the referendum in Crimea is the democratic choice of the people. And no one has the right to suppress it by force. The more determined the Crimeans - and Russia - are to hold a referendum and implement its results, the less likely it is that it will come to an armed conflict.

But we need to be prepared for anything. And consider all the options. The Ukrainians can use aviation, paratroopers (they have two brigades of airmobile troops), as well as a tank brigade in the Crimean operation. In order to use superiority in force to disrupt the referendum and establish control over Crimea and Sevastopol by force.

True, there is no need to talk about the high combat and technical readiness of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. But the balance of power in Crimea, it is possible, will be in favor of the Ukrainians. For the Crimean operation, they will select units staffed by military personnel from Western Ukraine and will use armed Bandera members from the Right Sector. It is possible that sabotage activities will be launched.

“SP”: – Will the group of ships of the USA, Romania and Bulgaria, which is currently conducting exercises in the Black Sea, pull up to Sevastopol?

– In my opinion, the Kyiv authorities will certainly ask NATO about this. Moreover, Ukraine has an agreement with NATO (signed in April 2004), according to which alliance troops can enter Ukraine. The only question is which of the NATO countries will agree to participate in an armed conflict with Russia.

I don’t think that Bulgarian or Romanian sailors will directly participate in combat operations at sea. Their ships can simply stand a couple of dozen miles from Sevastopol, and thereby put pressure on the situation. But the United States may be involved in a conflict: they have both ships and marines for this.

“SP”: – If the Crimean self-defense troops do not hold the isthmus and allow the Ukrainian army to advance deeper into the peninsula, will Crimea be surrendered?

“I don’t think that in this case the campaign will be completely lost by the self-defense forces—fights may break out for specific cities and towns.” But it’s better not to let things get to that point. Russia, together with the Crimean authorities, needs to plan the defense of the peninsula and Sevastopol in the most serious way today.

“SP”: – If it comes to an assault, will Russia send its troops into Crimea?

- We have to do this.

“The words of General Dempsey should be interpreted absolutely unambiguously: we are talking about the protection of the Baltic countries if an option similar to the Crimean one is implemented there,” says Deputy Director of the Institute of Political and Military Analysis Anatoly Khramchikhin. – In Latvia and Estonia today there is a real panic about what is happening in Crimea. They believe that the same thing can happen to them.

As for the gathering of Ukrainian troops to Crimea, yes, I admit that Ukraine will start a war in order to force the West to get involved in it. The question is, will the West want to get involved? I think no.

“SP”: – The Ukrainian army does not look combat-ready, acting. Defense Minister Igor Tenyukh says that the morale of personnel in Crimea is depressed, and the number of deserters is increasing. Are they capable of taking Perekop by storm?

– I don’t know what forces are on the isthmus. It is obvious that Russia tried to the last - no matter how much it was accused of aggression - to stay in Crimea within the limits of the authorized 25 thousand military contingent. The Ukrainian army itself, of course, is incapable. But she can strike one blow - precisely in order to start a war. Moreover, now all its needs are paid for by Ukrainian oligarchs, and the Ukrainian group is assembled from the most combat-ready units.

Ukraine has no chance of winning the war in Crimea. But she can impose war. This is bad in itself; the very fact of war is very unpleasant for Russia. In this case, we find ourselves - in some way - in the position of an aggressor, since we are conducting military operations on the territory of another sovereign state. Crimea, let me remind you, is still the territory of Ukraine.

“SP”: – In this case, will Russia send troops to Crimea?

– Russia will transfer units from the Caucasus. In general, our military resources are many times greater than Ukrainian ones. They are simply not comparable. But, I repeat, this is not the point.

“SP”: – Will military actions make it impossible to hold a referendum?

– Kyiv’s main task is to disrupt the referendum in Crimea. He has a whole week to do this. Military operations can begin any day before March 16. If it comes to armed conflict, holding a referendum will be technically extremely difficult.

“SP”: – How do you assess the likelihood of a force scenario?

- 50 percent.

“The use of Western military forces on the territory of Ukraine is extremely unlikely,” notes Veronika Krasheninnikova, Director General of the Institute for Foreign Policy Research and Initiatives. “There are other resources for this: the Ukrainian army itself, a sufficient number of armed gangs, like the Right Sector, plus neo-Nazis and radicals from Eastern European countries who will flock to Ukraine. Finally, there are the armed forces of such a vassal of Washington in the post-Soviet space as Georgia.

Georgia needs to be watched especially carefully now. On March 3, the head of the Georgian Ministry of Defense Irakli Alasania had a telephone conversation with the acting. Head of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine. On March 7, the Georgian military department announced that the armed forces of the republic were in a state of full combat readiness. And last week, Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili visited Washington. And he met there not only with US Vice President Joe Biden, but also - which goes beyond the protocol - with President Obama. All this suggests that Georgia today is conducting extremely active military-political activities.

Of course, Kyiv and its Western curators will make an attempt to disrupt the referendum in Crimea. It is clear that Kyiv will not advance military forces without consulting Washington and NATO headquarters in Brussels, and without receiving assurances of support. Another thing is obvious: Washington will now try to make the solution to the Crimean issue “expensive” for Russia.

“There is nothing threatening in Martin Dempsey’s statement, it’s just that the general, as a military man, did not rule out any options,” says Konstantin Zatulin, director of the Institute of CIS Countries. – Another thing is that people, frightened by the US position, saw in Dempsey’s words a threat of American military intervention.

I will say this: if the Americans had decided to militarily intervene in Ukrainian affairs, I could not have come up with anything better for the Russian Federation. Because any presence of Americans on the territory of Ukraine is the best justification for our presence there. In this case, the Americans will not just stand on the same level with us, but will take something much cooler - they will appear in a country in which they have never been present before. I’m not sure that the Americans are such idiots that they don’t understand this and will take such a step.

As for the concentration of the Ukrainian armed forces, I look at their capabilities with doubt. If they decide to take any action, it will lead to one thing: the percentage of those voting “for” the annexation of Crimea to Russia will increase sharply...

Gaidai S.

Will there be a war in Crimea: I have long wanted to write about Crimea. For those Crimeans who voted to join Russia, but still did not lose the ability to reflect. I still have many acquaintances in Crimea who believe that their choice to live in Russia is correct, fair and wise.

They say that Crimeans never wanted to live in Ukraine, it is their right to choose, they voted legally in the referendum, the Ukrainians themselves are to blame - they treated them badly, they were scared by Ukrainization and extremists, war and many other reasons. And such arguments seem to have their own logic. And it’s difficult to argue with them in the language of politics...

Let me try to explain everything using an everyday example. Maybe it will be clearer.

The family lives. Husband and wife. They live in an apartment. They don't live very well. They quarrel. Did not get along. The wife is stupid. A husband is no gift either. Doesn't care about his wife at all. Rude and inconsistent. Sometimes lazy. But they share an apartment. Not bad. Spacious and with traces of its former prosperity. They got it from their parents. Each spouse lives in his own room. Only the kitchen, corridors, electricity, water, sewerage - everything is common. But my husband began to have very difficult times. Showdowns at work, quarrels with friends. A person has a crisis. And the wife decided to dissolve their marriage for this reason. After all, he has the right. And she did it in one day. She says she found out that her husband was involved in a big fight, and she was afraid that he might beat her too. So I hurried. And she didn’t just end the marriage, she decided to go to her neighbor’s. He has a huge apartment, he says he loved this wife for a long time, and would be very happy to start cohabiting with her. The only problem is that the wife didn’t pack her things and move in with her neighbor. One day she and her neighbor walled up the door to her husband’s room. And they broke through a new door to the neighbor. The wife and her room went to a neighbor’s house. True, some of her husband’s things remained in her room; she had to appropriate them for herself and give them to her neighbor. Although the door was bricked up, the wife’s room was still powered by electricity from her husband’s apartment. There is also a shared balcony. There is a refrigerator there - my wife continued to take food from there. And my husband paid for the heating - it’s also shared. Well, everything seems fine. She not only decided to leave with her things - but also with her room. But they didn’t ask my husband - does he agree? And of course he doesn’t agree.

But let's start in order.

An apartment is a joint property - common property. And if someone decides to change its status, this can only be done with the general consent of all owners. After all, they invested in it together, all sorts of repairs, purchasing property. And my husband invested more. But to take part of the apartment like this and only with the consent of one party on one day, with all the property that was in the room, is an act of extortion, illegal and unfair. The decision of only one party to cut off what they want is theft. It's not even theft - looting. The husband was then lying in the hospital, beaten. Near death, one might say. And stealing from a dead or wounded person is looting. Ok, well, since the wife and the neighbor have already taken the room by force, and cut themselves off from the husband - taking his food, heat, gas, water, electricity is completely arrogant redneck. Did you go to a neighbor? Now it is her and the neighbor's responsibility. Does it take time to get all this together? Then there was no need to rush to individually divide the property in their favor. There was no need for such a rush. Everything would be decided at the negotiating table with the participation of all parties, with lawyers and through the courts and over a long period of time. Divide everything, conduct new communications or agree on monetary compensation. In general, a long and legal procedure was required. Moreover, children of Tatar origin did not want their parents’ divorce at all. I will say an outrageous thing for the inhabitants of the peninsula - Crimea was not the full property of its inhabitants. The territory of all of Ukraine is the property of all its inhabitants. And if we hold a referendum on the status of some part of its territory, it will be by asking the wishes of all residents of the country.

Crimea was not a gift from a drunken Khrushchev to the Ukrainians. It was not given to Ukraine in the early fifties - but entrusted. They assigned it as a project that required a lot of work and investment.

The peninsula was a depressed, dying territory. Especially after the deportation of the indigenous Tatar population. A narrow strip of palaces and dachas for desks. the weather elite didn’t do it. The Soviet leadership had a simple pragmatic goal - the development of the region. Geographically, only Ukraine could pull this off. Due to the convenience of having an isthmus with the mainland, with the opportunity to bring Dnieper water to Crimea, develop agriculture in the steppe Crimea using the resources of the Kherson region and create all communications from the mainland - transport, gas, power lines. Since the fifties, several generations of Ukrainians have invested resources, their labor, and created material resources in Crimea - both in the USSR and during the years of independence. Crimea was our common property.

And it is simply impossible to decide its fate in one day only by a population yearning for the Soviet past and seduced by the myth of a great Russia. This is neither legal nor fair.

Homecoming? Which of the current Crimeans actually remembered Crimea as part of the RSFSR? Possibly only a few. And those who shouted - yes, we are Russians - came here much later. Already in Ukrainian Crimea. Today's Russia is a new state, de jure formed in the same 1991 as independent Ukraine. What Russian rights to the peninsula can we talk about? Yes, we had a common parent - the USSR. But the inheritance was divided with the consent of the parties. Moreover, Ukraine invested fully in Crimea throughout the Soviet years and had the right to do so. After the collapse of the USSR, Germany did not demand the return of Kaliningrad? This is robbery - real robbery. And the participation of the majority of the local population in it will not stop it being a robbery. But still, having taken such an unfair, short-sighted, illegal step, Crimeans must bear responsibility for this. Only in responsibility are true citizens born. Now this is the loss of everything on which life in Crimea rested. There will no longer be Ukrainian water, electricity, food, or convenient transport links from the mainland. There will be no visas to Europe and the world. There will be no international air traffic. We won’t have millions of Ukrainian and foreign tourists. There will only be Russians. And also sanctions and the status of occupied territory. I'm not talking about the lack of global investment in this territory. Will there be Russian ones? OK.

But the economy of this raw materials giant is very weak by world standards. Read Russian experts who say that Russia currently does not have the resources to develop Crimea. And there will also be an internal, albeit hidden, social conflict with that minority who did not decide to live in Russia and consider themselves citizens of Ukraine. They were deprived of their country in one day with all their property and without their consent. And the conflict with the Tatars is laid like a time bomb. Who have already twice decided the right to have their own homeland. They, too, for the most part did not support the idea of ​​living in Russia. And all those Ukrainian citizens who did not want to change their homeland, who were forcibly captured by the Russians in Crimea, must be taken care of and fed by the occupiers. These are the world rules. Well, and also Ukrainian and international humanitarian missions. Only targeted - precisely those who were captured, and not those who joyfully voted to change the national flag.

I don’t even want to discuss the argument that is important to me: yes, in Ukraine, both yesterday and today, there is no state with which I would like to live. I hope many people no longer confuse country and state? Our state should be dismantled to its core - and a new one built in its place. But the Russian state machine is a much worse choice! There, the bureaucratic and cop lawlessness is many times worse. And corruption is more reinforced concrete. And freedom is a dirty word. But this is not the worst thing.

Crimeans justify their step by saying that they avoided war. Just like in Donbass. I will not now prove that the war in the Ukrainian east began solely through the efforts of their new state - the Russian Federation. They still won't believe it.

This is not about that. Alas, separation from the mainland did not insure Crimeans from war. On the contrary, it created the conditions for its emergence in the future. Residents of Crimea voted for the war, which is simply postponed today. Or maybe it’s even worse - the Crimeans have shifted the future war onto the shoulders of their children and grandchildren. How once decades later, the Austrians, jubilant at joining Germany, brought Soviet tanks to Vienna and American bombings to Austrian cities. By annexing Crimea illegally and unfairly, without reaching an agreement with their former fellow citizens, the Crimeans created a constant threat that new generations of Ukrainian patriots will always set themselves the goal of returning what was illegally taken away. How Croatia regained the part of its territory that had been taken over by Serbia years later. She strengthened and trained her army, and then quickly regained the lost territories within a week.

And Crimea is not immune from such a scenario. God willing, without any special casualties or losses on both sides.

Sergei Gaidai, political strategist
30.11.2015